Dubai Property Investment Reviews: What Does the DLD Data Show?

"Is it a scam?", "Is it a bubble?", "Is it still worth it?" – these are the questions I hear most about investing in Dubai property. Critical press coverage is growing, while the ads keep promising spectacular returns. In this article I show numbers rather than opinions: I analysed more than 480,000 apartment sales registered with the Dubai Land Department (DLD) between January 2023 and October 2026.

What do the critics say?

Over the past year the Hungarian financial press raised several important warnings:

• Index reported that Dubai project marketing promises 30–100% value growth during construction, with "zero tax" as another key selling point.
• Portfolio wrote that Dubai prices rose roughly 70% in four years, and that the trade war and falling oil prices could be risks for the market.
• Forbes Hungary pointed out that beyond the 4% transfer fee there is no tax on property income for individuals in Dubai – attractive, but it does not automatically mean tax-free income for European tax residents.

These are fair points. Let's look at what the actual transactions show.

What does the DLD data show?

The figures below cover apartment sales registered in the DLD's public database (off-plan and ready units together, 20–1,000 m²). The median is the value with half of the deals cheaper and half more expensive.

Three things stand out:

1. The median price per square metre rose 13.7% between 2023 and 2025. Significant, but far from the 20–30% a year suggested by the ads.
2. Prices stalled in 2026. The January–September median was AED 18,577/m², against AED 18,546 for the same period of 2025 – practically unchanged.
3. Volumes are falling noticeably. There were 93,136 apartment sales in the first nine months of 2026, against 116,929 in the same period of 2025 (–20%). The year started strongly (January +28% year on year), but from May every month saw fewer deals than a year earlier; by September volume had halved.

Off-plan and ready: two different markets

Splitting the data makes the picture even clearer:

The median price per square metre of ready (secondary) apartments rose 22% in three years. The off-plan median has essentially stood still, while the off-plan share of deals grew from 62% to 76%.

One reason is that more and more new projects are being built in outer, cheaper parts of the city, so the median does not measure the same stock from year to year. The lesson is still clear: buying off-plan is not a guarantee of capital growth. Choosing between off-plan and ready property matters more today than a few years ago.

What does a Dubai apartment cost today?

Median prices of apartment sales registered in 2026, by size:

(EUR at the ECB-based dirham rate of 7 October 2026: AED 1 = €0.2436, rounded.) On top come the buying costs: the 4% DLD fee and other charges add roughly 6–8% to the price.

Where the critics are right

• Over-promised returns are real. "30–100% growth during construction" may happen in individual projects, but across the off-plan market the median price per square metre has not risen since 2023. Anyone who relies on advertised numbers may be disappointed.
• The market is slowing. The drop in volume in the second half of 2026 means selling – especially before handover – can take longer and may be harder at the asking price.
• Supply is large. A 76% off-plan share signals a lot of new apartments being handed over in the coming years, which can put pressure on rents and prices.
• "Tax-free" can be misleading. Dubai has no income tax on rent, but your home country may still tax it – see the tax article.

Where the critics overstate

• There is no price crash. Prices stalled in 2026 but did not fall, and ready apartments became 22% more expensive in three years.
• The market is transparent. Every deal is registered with the DLD and the data is public – this article is built on it. You can compare any project's price with real sales nearby.
• Off-plan buyers' money is protected. Instalments paid to the developer go into the project's escrow account, which the developer can draw on only in line with construction progress.

Who is Dubai property NOT for?

• Anyone who must take their money out within 2–3 years.
• Anyone who could only invest with borrowed money, risking all their capital.
• Anyone looking for a guaranteed, fixed return.
• Anyone unwilling to carry currency risk (the dirham is pegged to the US dollar).

How to check an offer: 5 steps

1. Developer: check how many projects it has delivered and how late.
2. Escrow: ask for the project's escrow account details and pay only there.
3. Price: compare the price per square metre with actual DLD sales in the same area.
4. Net yield: deduct service charges, management fees and void months from the advertised gross yield – the ROI calculator and the rental article help.
5. Exit: think through who you could sell to, and at what price, in 5–7 years.

Frequently asked questions

Is the Dubai property market a bubble? According to DLD data, prices are flat in 2026 and volumes are falling, but there is no crash. That signals a slowdown, not a collapse – though risks are higher than in 2023.

Is Dubai property still worth buying in 2026? Over a 5–7 year horizon, with a carefully chosen property, it can be. A strategy built on a quick profit within a few years is riskier today. Ready apartment prices grew more than off-plan prices over the past three years.

Where does the data come from? From the Dubai Land Department's public transaction data: apartment sales registered between 1 January 2023 and 7 October 2026 (off-plan pre-registrations, ready units and delayed sales).

Is Dubai property a scam? The market itself is regulated and transparent, but over-promised returns and unregistered intermediaries are real risks. If you are unsure about an offer, ask for an independent calculation.

Summary

For the full picture – yield, costs, risks and the buying steps in one place – read our Dubai property investment guide 2026.

Dubai property is neither a miracle nor a scam. Prices rose significantly between 2023 and 2025 and stalled in 2026, and the off-plan segment has not delivered the advertised capital growth over the past three years. Investors who decide on data, for the longer term and with all costs included, can still find good opportunities – those who follow the ads may be disappointed.